The Tips panel return this week with more expert insight ahead of the 123rd U.S. Open, hosted at The Los Angeles Country Club.
Every week a panel of industry-leading golf tipsters and special guests preview the week’s betting markets, with the third Major Championship of the year coming under the microscope.
Joining regular host Ollie Silverton this time are golf writers Matt Cooper, Niall Lyons, and PGA Tour Staff Writer Ben Everill – who makes his debut in the DP World Tour’s official golf betting podcast.
This week the North Course at Los Angeles Country Club hosts its first Major Championship, which boasts a big mix of challenging holes, wider fairways than typical of a U.S. Open and some expectedly penal Bermuda rough.
With the course a relative unknown to most players, the tipsters this week focused on previous Major results and some specific stats ahead of the third Major of the season.
For debutant Everill, it meant a close look at statistics that had him come up with just five names that he felt could win this week. Singling out two of those, he chose Englishman Tyrrell Hatton and World Number One Scottish Scheffler.
For debutant Everill, it meant a close look at statistics that had him come up with just five names that he felt could win this week. Singling out two of those, he chose Englishman Tyrrell Hatton and World Number One Scottish Scheffler.
“They’ve put some luscious rough around the greens so if you’re not accurate off the tee and more importantly into those greens you’re going to have a buried ball and hope for some luck and hacking it out. It’s going to favour the ball strikers like it always does. If you find the greens you’re going to be in good stead. If you don’t, you better have your absolute A plus game around the greens otherwise you’ll just get lapped.
“I went and looked in at the trends, and I only came down to five names that could win this, and Hatton was one of them. For me they needed to be inside the top ten in strokes gained off the tee, top 20 tee to green, and top 25 total, and he hits all of those.
“He is not great at the 200 yard plus stats on Tour but and he hits all of those. He might need to be a little more accurate in some of the longer approach shots, and he’s got to keep his head on, that’s where I see value. The best is still to come.
“Scottie Scheffler is also hitting it better tee to green than anyone we’ve seen in a long time. It’s ridiculous how well he’s hit it. At both of his last tournaments he could have made one more putt and he could have been in a play-off, and he finished dead last in strokes gained putting in both the last two events.
"If we put Denny McCarthy’s putting stats at Muirfield Village with Scheffler’s tee to green he could have won by double digits. We only need to see him make one or two more putts to see him in contention. In the three stats I mentioned: he ranks one, one and one. If he makes half as many putts as the field average, we could have a dominant victory.”
Lyons singled out Viktor Hovland as his outright pick, following his runner-up finish at the US PGA Championship and a victory in his last start on the PGA TOUR at the Memorial Tournament.
"I’m a massive fan of anyone who has played well in a recent Major championship," he said.
"At the US PGA he was much, much better in the final round than he was in the Masters and the Open, and that’s a sign of getting used to the climate of the final couple of groups in a Major.
"He’s shown those stepping-stones towards landing that first Major victory. A win at Muirfield Village in his last time out as well, his first win in mainland America, is another feather in his cap. He’s contended the last three Major champions on the trot, and he holds all the aces.
"Hovland has gained shots on the field around the greens in nine of the last 11 Majors that we have stats on, which is hard to believe given the narrative you read. His short-game is getting better, but especially in Majors, Hovland ups his game."
Everill added that Hovland was also one of the five on his list.
“He is one of those five I mentioned, too,” he said.
“He was gutted after the PGA, and normally we see the smiling Viktor and everything is hunky dory even when he loses but not this time. He walked away angry, annoyed, but it was a good thing because it turned him into a machine coming into Muirfield. He’s been working very hard on that short-game but also his strategy.
"He’s not firing at as many pins, and talked about how his coach and he have figured out not to take the aggressive shots and he’s saved two or three shots a round just by changing his strategy. If someone picks Hovland, I won’t talk anyone out of it.”
For Cooper, the choice was Canadian Corey Conners, citing recent Major form and some brilliant approach play stats.
"I respect the fact he hits a lot of greens," he explained. "If you look at Greens in Regulation from approach over 200 yards, he ranks first. I’m a big fan of golfers who have recently contended in the Majors. I call it basecamping because mountaineers don’t go to Everest in one go, and I think that tends to happen. 23 of the last 25 Major winners either finished top eight, or were in the top four with 18 holes to go in the three Majors ahead of their victory.
"Conners was in contention at the PGA Championship, he’s had three top 10s at the US Masters, he was the first round leader of the PGA Championship in 2021 and he was fourth with 18 holes to go in the Open in the same year. He also said he learned a lot of lessons at the PGA, he was a winner earlier this year. He’s got a lot going for him, and maybe he’ll be inspired by Nick Taylor last week."
To listen to the guests' insight and tips in full, including other suggestions to back this week, please click here: https://linktr.ee/dpworldtour
